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Background

• Historically the aviation industry has been growing by around 5% a year
• Efficiencies mean that emissions have grown by less than this, around 3% per year
• But a growing carbon footprint is unacceptable for any industry
• IATA’s vision (adopted in 2007) was for carbon-neutral growth on the path to building an emissions free commercial plane by 2057
• At IATA’s 65th AGM in June 2009, the airline industry committed to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020

What is Carbon-Neutral Growth?

• Carbon-neutral growth means that aviation’s net CO2 emissions will remain flat even as demand grows
• Net CO2 emissions from aviation would peak in 2020 and would decline after that
• Carbon-neutral growth will be achieved by investing in measures to cut emissions within the industry or by financing projects to cut an equivalent amount of emissions in other industries

Industry Goals

• Average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year to 2020
• A cap on net aviation CO2 emissions from 2020: carbon-neutral growth
• A goal to reduce net CO2 emissions 50% by 2050 compared to 2005

Carbon-Neutral Growth Contingent Upon

• ICAO setting a CO2 emission standard for new aircraft types
• Governments and fuel companies delivering sustainable biofuels for aviation
• Governments and Air Navigation Service Providers improve air traffic management, including Single European Sky and NextGen

Current Status and Forecast

• Total emissions for 2010 increased by 3.5% to 649 million tonnes CO2 (compared with 627 million tonnes in 2009)
• Emissions growth in 2010 is the result of:
• 5.2% increase due to capacity increase (33 million tonnes)
• Reduction of 1.7% from efficiencies (11 million tonnes)

Measures to Achieve Carbon-Neutral Growth

• Fleet renewal
  • $1.3 trillion - investing in 5,500 new planes and 5,000 replacement planes, 17% emission reduction
• Operations
  • $1billion, using ground power at airports, weight reduction, more efficient flight procedures, 3% emission reduction
• Infrastructure
  • $58 billion - Single European Sky, NextGen in USA, Pearl River Delta in China, Reduced Vertical Separation Minima in Russia, flex tracks, 4% emission reduction
• Engine & airframe technology
  • $2 billion - winglets, drag reduction, .24% emission reduction
• Biofuels
  • $100 billion - 6% mix of sustainable 2nd generation biofuels by 2020 would reduce emissions 5%
• Offsets
  • $7 billion a year - 100 million tonnes of CO2 will need to be offset by 2025 to close the gap and reduce emissions to 2020 levels achieving carbon-neutral growth
• Overall capital expenditure to achieve carbon-neutral growth is $1.6 trillion
  

Updated: December 2011