Fact Sheet: Carbon-Neutral Growth

• Historically the aviation industry has been growing by around 5% a year
• Efficiencies mean that emissions have grown by less than this, around 3% per year
• But a growing carbon footprint is unacceptable for any industry
• IATA’s 2007 vision was for carbon-neutral growth on the path to building an emissions free plane by 2057
• At IATA’s 65th AGM in June 2009, the airline industry committed to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020

What is carbon-neutral growth?

• Carbon-neutral growth means that aviation’s net CO2 emissions will remain flat even as demand grows
• Net CO2 emissions from aviation would peak in 2020 and would decline after that
• Carbon-Neutral Growth will be achieved by investing in measures to cut emissions within the industry or by financing projects to cut an equivalent amount of emissions in other industries

Industry goals

• Average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year to 2020
• A cap on net aviation CO2 emissions from 2020: carbon-neutral growth
• A goal to reduce net CO2 emissions 50% by 2050 compared to 2005

Carbon-Neutral Growth Contingent Upon

• ICAO setting CO2 emission standards for new aircraft types
• Governments and fuel companies delivering sustainable biofuels
• Governments and Air Navigation Service Providers improve air traffic management, including Single European Sky and NextGen

Current status and forecast

• IATA’s strategy is delivering results: in 2009 emissions fell 6.2% to 628 million tonnes CO2 compared with 669 million tonnes in 2008
  • Fall of 6.2% (41 million tonnes)
  • 4.2% due to capacity cuts (28 million tonnes)
  • 2% from efficiencies (13 million tonnes)
• These emissions reductions are mainly due to the general economic downturn and the strategy is predicated on long term growth of the industry

Measures to achieve carbon-neutral growth

• Fleet renewal
  • US$1.5 trillion, 5,500 new planes (27% of fleet), 21% emission reduction
• Operations
  • US$1billion, using ground power at airports, weight reduction, more efficient flight procedures, 3% emission reduction
• Infrastructure
  • US$58 billion, implementation of Single European Sky, NextGen in USA, Pearl River Delta in China, Reduced Vertical Separation Minima Russia, flex tracks, 4% emission reduction
• Engine & airframe technology
  • US$2 billion, winglets, drag reduction, 1% emission reduction
• Biofuels
  • US$100 billion, 6% mix of sustainable 2nd generation biofuels by 2020 would reduce emissions 5%
• Offsets
  • US$7 billion a year, 90 million tonnes will need to be offset by 2025 to close the gap and reduce emissions to 2020 levels achieving carbon-neutral growth
• Overall capital expenditure to achieve carbon-neutral growth is US$1.6 trillion
  

Updated: March 2010