IATA Training and Qualification Initiative (ITQI)

• Manufacturers’ market outlook studies show 17,650 new aircraft deliveries by the year 2018 
  • The current order backlog already consists of more than 7,000 firm orders and 2,300 options
  • These 17,650 aircraft will require 207,000 new pilots or approximately 18,800 pilots per year
    
• The main area of concern is the capacity of training presently evaluated at 167,400 for the 2018 period or 15,200 per year - producing a shortage of 3,600 pilots per year
  
  
• These are conservative numbers as the training of experienced pilots moving over from replacement aircraft is not included and represent 57,900 pilots for the same period
  
  
• The gap between pilot demand and capacity differs significantly by region due to the high resource demand in emerging markets generated by stronger traffic growth and insufficient local training capacity
  
  
• IATA is monitoring the effects on safety of trends towards deviating training standards and experience levels, currently surfacing in the marketplace

Given the expected lower maintenance demand for the new aircraft generation, approximately 250,000 aircraft technicians will be needed by 2018

• IATA has teamed up with key industry stakeholders including airframe manufacturers as well as ICAO, IBAC and the Flight Safety Foundation to address critical issues:
  • Airline training and qualification needs
• • Review and development of modern training standards
  • Solutions for increased training efficiency to meet future demand for licensed personnel
  • New training device specifications
  • Guidance to attract young people to aviation
• IATA will produce by year-end:
  
  • A detailed safety impact analysis and market assessment
  • An analysis of current and national regulations to identify gaps
  • Draft standards for Flight Training Devices and Instructor Qualifications
  • Develop a competency concept based on training and qualification of engineers
• The completion of all required industry guidance and best practices is expected by 2009.  IATA will promote a coordinated and harmonised implementation by individual states and organisations

Aircraft Demand

	2018	2026
Total Aircraft	17,650	32,000
Additional Aircraft	12,355	21,000

Reference & Assumptions:

• Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer Market outlook that include Single and Twin Aisles, Large and Regional (jets and turboprop)
• The 2018 numbers are based on 2016 trends identified in Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer Market outlook
• Breakdown per aircraft type (2018) Single aisle: 9350, Twin aisle: 3200, Large aircraft and freighters: 950 and Regional jets and turboprops: 4,150.
• Average of 70% of total aircraft demand for additional aircraft and 30% for replacement aircraft - for 2018.

Pilot and Training Demand

	2018	2026
Total pilots needed to fly new aircraft	193,100	350,200
New pilots for additional aircraft	135,000	227,500
New pilots needed to fill fluctuation & retirement gap	72,600	125,400
Total new pilots – (additional aircraft & fluctuation) needing ab-initio training	207,600	352,900
Total new pilots needing transition training on replacement aircraft	57,930	122,700

Assumptions:

• An average of 10 pilots (5 crews) for regional and single aisle aircraft and an average of 14 pilots (7 crews) for twin and large aircraft
• A 3% per annum for fluctuation and retirement based on current number of pilots
  

Maintenance Demand

	2018	2026
Total mechanics needed for additional aircraft	247,100	420,000
Total mechanics including fluctuation and retirement	405,500	739,000

Assumptions:

• An average of 20 mechanics per aircraft (Line base, components and engine)
• A 4% per annum for fluctuation and retirement based on the current mechanics number

Updated: July 2008