1. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
Expect a gradual ramp-up from 2025-2050
Key industry players see SAF as a cornerstone of decarbonization, and it is a common feature in most airlines’ ESG strategies. Whilst most parties agree SAF will be essential in reaching net zero by 2050, forecasts on the proportion of sustainable fuels required vary. Although the FAA assumes SAF will account for 70% of carbon reduction in 2050, EUROCONTROL expects a level closer to 41% (with a heavier focus on carbon offset), indicating a global disconnect in the perception of SAF.
The key barriers to mass SAF adoption are supply and cost. 449 billion liters of SAF would need to be produced in 2050 to meet industry targets, representing a huge increase from the 125 million liters produced in 2021. With f production costs remaining high, this presents a significant financial challenge for the industry.
2. Hybrid-electric Propulsion
Small aircraft (under 19 seats) by 2030, regional aircraft in the 2030s, large aircraft in the 2040s
Hybrid-electric propulsion supplements are set to replace combustion at certain stages to reduce the overall CO2 output. . Examples include electric APUs, and using electric power to supplement thrust on taxi, takeoff, and cruise. Whilst hybrid-electric could bypass some shortcomings of electric power, we anticipate that emissions reduction in real terms would be below 40%.
3. Electric Aircraft
Small aircraft (under 19 seats) to be in service by 2030
Despite understandable optimism surrounding this technology, it is important to appreciate that limits in battery and charging technology make electric motors unsuitable for large aircraft flying long distances. Jet fuel delivers around 14 times more power than the equivalent mass of batteries, and it may take decades for this to change.
Cost per seat will remain significantly higher than travel by road, so it is unlikely to become a form of mass transportation. That being said, electric power presents opportunities for regional connectivity and logistics. Easily reconfigured aircraft with short take-off and landing capabilities could revolutionize the way we travel locally and fulfill our increasing e-commerce expectations. They could also provide growth opportunities for small airfields and reduce reliance on diesel trucks.
4. Hydrogen Fuels
Our prediction – introduction of hydrogen aircraft after 2040
Hydrogen has proven popular with OEMs as a basis for concept programs. It is approximately 3 times lighter than jet fuel and theoretically possible for mass use in aircraft. The significant challenges of implementing hydrogen fuels in aircraft are cost and infrastructure.
Despite the fact that hydrogen is lighter than jet fuel, it has a significantly higher volume which would require larger, temperature-controlled fuel tanks, resulting in major changes to the design of aircraft, fuel, and airport infrastructure. Additionally, the cost of ‘green hydrogen’, which is not produced using fossil fuels, is high.
Chris Lomas
Digital Content Manager, IBA Group
