By Hemant Mistry, Director, Net Zero Transition, IATA
The topic of aviation sustainability is vast, and the challenges we face seem to be spotlighted day by day. But we should not lose focus on the progress made and the opportunity, or indeed the necessity for aviation to progress in sustainability and address its environmental impact. For the longer-term outlook of our industry, there is no other option, and the challenges we address together will only help to set the path for future progress.
For decades, we have built and become reliant on the global energy system built on petroleum solutions. Jet fuel is but one output of petroleum products from a refinery. The major outputs are, of course, diesel and gasoline, which are the main source of profitability for refiners. Often, the output of jet fuel from a refinery is dependent on the demand for diesel, which can be more profitable for refiners. The same is true in the case of a renewable fuel refinery and the challenge for the output of SAF versus renewable diesel.
Since the start of the Iran conflict, we have found out how vulnerable we are – jet fuel has been the hardest hit from the crisis and has been disproportionately affected compared with crude oil, diesel, and gasoline. This price dislocation has been a signal of acute supply tightness driven by logistical bottlenecks and refinery constraints.
Part of the reason for the differences in price elevation seen for jet fuel across regions is reliance on imports. 24% of Europe’s jet fuel and 33% of Africa's jet fuel came from the Persian Gulf before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The high need for imports in Europe is also due to the reduction in jet fuel production capacity: jet fuel production in Europe declined by 13% in 2025 compared to 2019.
To help mitigate the shortfall in jet flows since the closure, we have seen increased jet output from other channels, specifically increased exports from the US and West Africa, as well as the use of national and commercial strategic reserves across the globe. This is a valiant effort from across the supply chain and shows what can be done when everyone – industry and governments – pulls together.
This provides a good illustration of the level of progress that can be made when the value chain is aligned in recognition of an urgent situation. And what is clear is that recent events only place more urgency on the need for energy complementarity and energy security.
SAF is the main lever for aviation's decarbonization, and its role now as part of the renewable fuel mix of outputs is critical for government planning towards stronger energy resilience.
Energy transition is a system challenge, as we are talking about multi-product, multi-industry refining facilities. When we look at the potential to better position renewable fuels and specifically SAF in terms of energy security, we can see aviation is not so much part of the problem but should instead be recognized as part of the solution.
