By Preeti Jain, Head Net Zero Research and Programs, IATA
Since our commitment at the 77th IATA Annual General Meeting in October 2021 to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, we are in a moment of retrospection and reflection to assess our journey so far. Achieving net zero emissions is a challenging task in view of the growing demand from a world eager to fly. At the same time, mitigating carbon emissions is an existential need and not an option.
Given that 2025 is the year of the 42nd ICAO Assembly for states to review their long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, it’s the opportune time for us to see what we have been able to catalyze, shape, and accomplish, and which solutions must be accelerated through supportive government policies to eventually achieve sustainable flying for our future generations.
One of the biggest challenges is converting ‘Net Zero’ commitments into credible actions. Aviation is a hard-to-decarbonize sector, requiring a multifarious approach through the combined effect of multiple CO2 emissions reduction measures. These include the accelerated adoption of new and innovative aircraft technologies, streamlined flight operations, carbon offsets, and the increased production and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Airlines made a sincere commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 with optimism that it would be supported by sovereign policy frameworks and industry partners delivering solutions in an economically and timely prudent manner.
However, this is not happening as anticipated. Particularly in the area of SAF, the development and deployment of SAF is instrumental in mitigating industry carbon emissions by 65% by 2050. Although SAF production has doubled to one million tonnes of SAF in 2024 compared to the previous year and is projected to reach 2 million metric tonnes in 2025, it still represents less than 1% of overall jet fuel demand. This slow pace of SAF adoption, coupled with its higher price, has become a critical dampener to the airlines' decarbonization efforts. Furthermore, the anticipated growth in the offsets market and the momentum towards hydrogen-fueled planes are not propagating enough to sustain the aggressive 2050 timeline. We must realize the transition toward net zero carbon emissions is an economic opportunity and should not be missed.
IATA strives to refine and communicate the scientific and technical understanding of net zero solutions to our airline members and stakeholders at large. Our research objectives reflect the industry’s need for innovative solutions to achieve net zero carbon emissions. In this process, we collaborate across all actors to build understanding and consensus for changing the status quo of existing energy models and supply chains for different net zero solutions.
Last year, IATA released an updated version of the Net Zero Finance Roadmap that contains our detailed assessment of the necessary steps to accelerate the transition to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In parallel, IATA has worked on building a comprehensive understanding of the key levers and produced several strategically important publications for the industry, including SAF production assessment, guidance on the use of hydrogen in aircraft and aviation infrastructure, assessment of contrail climate impacts, and studies on carbon dioxide removals (CDRs). All these initiatives will, in turn, help set a tone for net zero enablers and collective action.
Reaching net zero carbon emissions is a daunting task that airlines cannot achieve alone. It requires collaboration among policymakers and stakeholders across energy, aviation, and financing institutions. While developing future-ready technologies, it is equally important to optimize current solutions which are available for deployment. Governments should support the aviation industry's use of solutions like SAF through harmonized, incentive-based policies, rather than restrictive regulatory framework and mandates.
It is good to remember that innovation lies at the heart of the sustainable future we envision today. Renowned economist Joseph Schumpeter’s ‘Theory of Innovation Cycles’ highlights the transformative power of innovation on economies, industries, and societies. The world has witnessed these cycles in the past, where risk capital and policies fostered new technologies before they became the norm. Just as past innovations have transformed various sectors, aviation now stands at a similar crossroads. Innovation in aviation should be supported, promoted, and propagated until new technologies and business models mature to transform existing energy systems. Developing cost-efficient and streamlined technologies is crucial for reducing the aviation industry’s carbon footprint.
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